LONG-TERM EVALUATION OF CROPPING PATTERN CHANGES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ACROSS DIVERSE SCALES

Abstract

Climate change, driven by shifts in weather patterns, temperature fluctuations, declining water tables, and changes in wind and atmospheric pressure, poses a significant challenge to agriculture. To understand farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its effects on cropping systems, a study was carried out in District Dir Lower, a hilly, rain-fed region dominated by subsistence farming in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

The study revealed notable changes in cropping patterns over time. Wheat remained the primary crop, grown on nearly 90% of cultivated land, followed by maize (Zea mays) and rice (Oryza sativa), occupying 30% and 29% of the area, respectively. Some crops, such as opium (Papaver somniferum L.), were abandoned due to reduced land availability and low economic returns. Changes in livestock numbers and crop yields were largely driven by improved production technologies and adaptive practices rather than direct climatic effects.

Significant shifts in seasonal duration were also observed: summer has extended to almost 28 weeks, winter has shortened to about 8 weeks, and spring and autumn have contracted to roughly 4 and 3.5 weeks, respectively, with some seasons nearly disappearing. Monsoon rains now arrive 4–5 weeks later, while winter precipitation is delayed by 6–7 weeks compared to historical patterns. Additionally, average temperatures have risen by 20%, 27%, 30%, and 27% during winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Groundwater levels have dropped by 30–40 feet in several areas, particularly where eucalyptus plantations are extensive.